Why experts say you should exchange Czech crowns before summer

As summer vacation bookings rise in Czechia at the moment, financial experts urge Czechs to exchange some travel money now, as the Czech crown is expected to weaken against the euro and U.S. dollar in the coming months.

Currently, the euro trades just above CZK 25, offering a relatively favorable exchange rate. However, analysts warn that external factors like U.S. trade policies and interest rate changes could cause the crown to lose value.

“If the exchange rate is good, like now, it makes sense to exchange some money. Even I’m exchanging half of mine,” said Petr Dufek, chief economist at Creditas Bank, in an interview with Czech media outlet Novinky.cz.

Miroslav Novák, an analyst at financial firm Akcenta, agrees. “The exchange rate is better now than the six-month average,” he said. He expects the crown to weaken further, with the euro potentially reaching CZK 25.5.

A major factor affecting the crown is the Czech National Bank’s (CNB) upcoming interest rate decision. If rates stay the same, the crown may stabilize. A rate cut, however, could weaken it further.

The situation is similar for travelers heading to countries where the U.S. dollar is widely used. “If you need dollars for a trip, it’s best to buy now rather than speculate,” Novák advised. The dollar is currently below CZK 24 but could rise to CZK 24.5 due to global market shifts and potential trade tariffs.

U.S. trade policies pose a significant risk. Analysts warn that potential U.S. tariffs on European goods could negatively impact the crown. “Markets try to anticipate such moves, but they aren’t fully priced in. The impact will depend on the scope and severity of the tariffs,” Novák explained.

Dominik Rusinek, an analyst at Czech bank ČSOB, pointed out the effect of global interest rates. “The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to keep rates steady, and a strong dollar weakens riskier assets like the Czech crown,” he said. Geopolitical factors, such as stability in Ukraine, may also influence the currency.

While short-term gains for the crown against the euro are possible, analysts see little chance of long-term improvement without stronger economic growth in the Czech Republic and Germany. “Sustained growth would require a lasting economic upturn and increased foreign demand, which I don’t expect soon,” Novák noted.

For travelers heading to Poland, Dufek recommends exchanging money now, as the Polish zloty has better prospects for strengthening. For destinations like Egypt and Tunisia, where travel agencies handle most expenses, buying a small amount of U.S. dollars for personal use may be enough.