Former PM Babiš ranks either first or third, depending on which poll you consult

Babiš takes the lead in one poll, while in another using a different polling model he drops to third place in voters' preferences. Staff

Written by Staff Published on 28.11.2022 11:18:00 (updated on 10.01.2023) Reading time: 2 minutes

Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has taken the lead in the latest poll for the presidential elections, due to take place on Jan. 13–14, 2023. Previous polls gave the advantage to retired Czech army general Petr Pavel.

Babiš, who is also head of the ANO political movement, would gain 27 percent in the first round of the presidential election, despite being embroiled in a scandal over the financing of the Čapí hnízdo farm and conference center.

Pavel is now in second at 26.5 percent and former university rector Danuše Nerudová comes in at 23.5 percent, according to an election model made by Data Collect and Kantar CZ, released by Czech Television.

If the election was held now

  • Andrej Babiš: 27 percent
  • Petr Pavel: 26.5 percent
  • Danuše Nerudová: 23.5 percent
  • Pavel Fischer: 5.5 percent
  • Josef Středula: 4 percent
  • Marek Hilšer: 4 percent
  • Karel Janeček: 2.5 percent

The remaining candidates follow at a distance: Senator Pavel Fischer at 5.5 percent, and Senator Marek Hilšer and labor leader Josef Středula at 4 percent each. Mathematician Karel Janeček trails at 2.5 percent, and no other candidate had over 2 percent. However, the Interior Ministry has refused to register Janeček’s bid as he fell short of the required 50,000 signatures. The issue will likely be decided in court.

If none of the candidates gets over 50 percent in the first round, there will be a second round on Jan. 27–28 with the top two candidates. The Czech Television poll did not give the likely results of a run-off vote. Current President Miloš Zeman, who took office in 2013, can’t run for re-election due to term limits.

Different model shows a different ranking in voter preferences

The poll results are different when the “election potential” model is used. This tracks the proportion of people who are just considering a candidate. People can consider more than one candidate if they haven't made up their minds.

In this scenario, the same candidates come out on top but in a different order. Pavel has 37.5 percent, Nerudová 34.5 percent, and Babiš 33.5 percent.

Fischer is being considered by 16 percent of voters, Hilšer by 11 percent, Středula by 9 percent, and Janeček by 5.5 percent.

The polls were conducted earlier this month on a sample of 1,238 Czechs with a margin of error of at most 3 percent.

Election potential model

  • Petr Pavel: 37.5 percent
  • Danuše Nerudová: 34.5 percent
  • Andrej Babiš: 35 percent
  • Pavel Fischer: 16 percent
  • Marek Hilšer: 11 percent
  • Josef Středula: 9 percent
  • Karel Janeček: 5.5 percent

It is now too late for anyone to declare their candidacy who has not already done so. On Friday, the Interior Minister registered the candidacies of Babiš, Nerudová, Pavel, Hilšer, and Středula as well as Freedom and Direct Democracy MP Jaroslav Bašta, debtors’ rights activist Denisa Rohanová, and former Charles University rector Tomáš Zima.

Aside from Janeček’s bid, the ministry also rejected the paperwork from entrepreneurs Tomáš Březina and Karel Diviš due to failure to acquire the necessary number of signatures. They can appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court until Nov. 30.

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