Populist ANO movement would win general election, poll shows

According to a survey by the Median agency, the senior opposition ANO movement would win a hypothetical general election in July with 33 percent, its support dropping by 2.5 percentage points compared to June. The populist party would be followed by the current senior coalition Civic Democrats (ODS) party, which would attain 15 percent of the vote share.

Support for the ODS rose by 1 percent compared to last month, similar to the junior government Pirates who would end up third, with 12 percent of the vote. The junior opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) follows with 8 percent, while the junior government Mayors and Independents (STAN) movement would receive 6.5 percent.

TOP 09, also a member of the government coalition, and the Social Democrats (SOCDEM), who did not enter the lower house of the parliament in the previous elections, are near the 5-percent threshold required to enter the Chamber of Deputies, receiving 5.5 percent and 5 percent of the vote respectively.

In a hypothetical July election, the ANO movement would win 77 seats, the ODS 35, Pirates 29, SPD 19, STAN 15, and TOP 09 and SOCDEM 14 each. However, the distribution of seats does not take into account possible pre-election coalitions.

ANO would obtain 39 percent of the vote if it gained votes from all people who said they would support it and intend to cast ballots. Under the same conditions, the ODS has a 21 percent chance of winning, while the Pirates have a 17.5 percent chance. STAN follows with a chance to garner 14.5 percent of the vote, and the SPD and TOP 09 each have a 13 percent probability of winning. 

While 56.5 percent of respondents would definitely take part in the general election in July, 14.5 percent of respondents are considering participation, 23.5 percent would definitely not have their say in the parliamentary elections, and 5.5 percent would rather not vote. Compared to the June poll, the willingness to participate in the elections has slightly decreased. The turnout of the general election in October 2021 was 65 percent.