2024 Czech Senate election: govt. parties weaken, but retain majority

The Czech Senate election concluded with a runoff round on Sept. 28, with both opposition party ANO, led by former PM Andrej Babiš, and the current government coalition led by PM Petr Fiala claiming victory. While ANO won the most seats out of any single party, the coalition parties are expected to maintain their majority in the Senate moving forward.

ANO won eight out of the 27 contested seats, marking the first time the party has won the most seats in an election for the Czech Senate. In contrast, government coalition parties collectively won 15 seats, leading both sides to declare victory. Voter turnout was 17.5 percent, slightly up from the previous elections in these districts in 2018 despite the recent floods.

ANO's Senate breakthrough

The ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, won two seats outright in last weekend's first round and six yesterday, a feat that underscores the party's growing influence. While Babiš expressed satisfaction with this achievement, calling it a "break of the Senate curse," he also acknowledged losses among other candidates, particularly in the second election round.

This victory allows ANO to potentially secure a position within the Senate leadership, with speculation around Jana Mráčková Vildumetzová, who was elected in the first round, being a candidate for the deputy head.

Despite the success, political analysts caution that the victory is not as resounding as it may seem. They point out that the party's long-term polling support suggests it should have performed even better. Josef Mlejnek, a political scientist at Charles University, noted that ANO's wins came primarily in regions where it had strong support, indicating a more localized victory rather than a sweeping mandate.

Government coalition claims victory

In contrast, Prime Minister Petr Fiala of the Civic Democrats (ODS) proclaimed the elections a success for the ruling government coalition, which is made up of the ODS, TOP 09, Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) parties. Fiala highlighted that their 15 seats means the coalition will maintain its majority with at least 59 seats in the 81-seat Senate.

Despite losing half of the ten seats it defended, ODS managed to remain the largest party in the Czech Senate, with other coalition members like STAN successfully defending their positions. Notably, the government parties are set to navigate future Senate sessions without significant alterations to their policy agenda, given their continued majority.

Emerging dynamics and future implications

The results of the election may signal shifting dynamics within the Senate and the broader political landscape in the Czech Republic. While the ruling coalition retains a majority, the emergence of new parties, such as the Oath party, which secured its first Senate seat, complicates traditional alignments.

Additionally, the formation of the joint ANO and Social Democrats group as potentially the third strongest bloc in the Senate indicates a more fragmented landscape, where coalitions will need to negotiate carefully on legislative issues. Analysts suggest that the future will depend heavily on how newly elected senators choose to align themselves and whether they can forge new alliances within the Senate.

The 2024 Czech Senate elections allowed the ANO party to break new ground, while also reinforcing the existing government coalition's grip on power. New dynamics in the Senate may play a crucial role for the government led by PM Fiala, which saw crisis last week as the Pirate Party left the ruling coalition.